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Lower Rain Chances This Weekend; Heat Makes a Comeback

Figure 1. Graphical forecast for tomorrow from National Weather Service Mobile.

This weekend: An upper-level ridge is going to build across the region, remaining in place through the middle of next week. Subsidence will break the recent wet, generally unsettled pattern, helping to suppress thunderstorm activity. This means rain chances will fall back to around seasonal, with coverage being scattered. The best chance of rain will be confined to the afternoon hours from thunderstorms induced by the sea breeze circulation and daytime heating.

Heat is also going to make a comeback. High temps will climb into the upper 80s/lower 90s, with heat indices in the 100 – 105° F range. Overnight lows will run in the mid/low 70s.

Figure 2. GEFS projected highs/lows through August 19th.

Next week: Ridging will remain in place through Wednesday, suppressing convective activity and keeping max temps in the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the 70s. By Thursday/Friday, an upper-level trough will drop into the Eastern half of the country, which should increase ran chances and knock temperatures down a few degrees.

Beaches: There was a high risk of rip currents along area beaches today, with a total of 28 water rescues that prompted double red flags. There will continue to be a risk for rip currents this weekend.

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